风和径流量对长江口缺氧影响的数值模拟

受自然和人类活动的影响，海洋缺氧现象日益严重，威胁着海洋生态环境，海洋缺氧问题已经引起了人们的广泛关注。本文应用区域海洋模式并耦合生态模式，对东海的生态系统进行了数值模拟和分析研究。与观测数据比较显示，该模型能较好地模拟长江口外生态变量的分布趋势。另外本文通过设置不同敏感性实验，探讨风和径流量对长江口底层缺氧现象的影响，结果分析表明，风和径流量对长江口外缺氧区的形成有显著的影响。径流量变化虽然对长江口外缺氧区的季节变化影响并不显著，但是对缺氧区域面积却存在显著的影响。径流量增加，水体层化增强，表层叶绿素浓度增加，最终导致缺氧区域范围扩展；径流量减小，水体层化减弱，表层叶绿素浓度减小，缺氧区域范围缩小。风向和风速的改变不仅影响长江口外缺氧区的季节变化，还影响缺氧区域面积。     

Assessment of alternative adsorption models and global sensitivity analysis to characterize hexavalent chromium loss from soil to surface runoff

We investigate our ability to assess transfer of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), from the soil to surface runoff by considering the effect of coupling diverse adsorption models with a two‐layer solute transfer model. Our analyses are grounded on a set of two experiments associated with soils characterized by diverse particle size distributions. Our study is motivated by the observation that Cr(VI) is receiving much attention for the assessment of environmental risks due to its high solubility, mobility, and toxicological significance. Adsorption of Cr(VI) is considered to be at equilibrium in the mixing layer under our experimental conditions. Four adsorption models, that is, the Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, and linear models, constitute our set of alternative (competing) mathematical formulations. Experimental results reveal that the soil samples characterized by the finest grain sizes are associated with the highest release of Cr(VI) to runoff. We compare the relative abilities of the four models to interpret experimental results through maximum likelihood model calibration and four model identification criteria (i.e., the Akaike information criteria [AIC and AIC_C] and the Bayesian and Kashyap information criteria). Our study results enable us to rank the tested models on the basis of a set of posterior weights assigned to each of them. A classical variance‐based global sensitivity analysis is then performed to assess the relative importance of the uncertain parameters associated with each of the models considered, within subregions of the parameter space. In this context, the modelling strategy resulting from coupling the Langmuir isotherm with a two‐layer solute transfer model is then evaluated as the most skilful for the overall interpretation of both sets of experiments. Our results document that (a) the depth of the mixing layer is the most influential factor for all models tested, with the exception of the Freundlich isotherm, and (b) the total sensitivity of the adsorption parameters varies in time, with a trend to increase as time progresses for all of the models. These results suggest that adsorption has a significant effect on the uncertainty associated with the release of Cr(VI) from the soil to the surface runoff component.     

敦煌-格尔木铁路沿线风动力环境特征

敦煌-格尔木铁路沿线地形复杂、起沙因素多变、沙源丰富，沙害问题日益严重。目前对其风沙活动规律还未有研究，不利于防沙工作的开展。为此，通过对自北向南的5个观测点（S1、S2、S3、S4、S5）风速和风向的观测、计算和分析，利用平均风速、起沙风况及输沙势对敦格铁路沿线的风动力环境特征进行研究。结果表明：S5、S4和S3的风况对铁路风沙灾害防治意义较大。S5年平均风速、起沙风频率和输沙势最大，春季风沙活动最为强烈，且风向单一、风力强劲，风沙运动方向基本与铁路垂直，沙粒易在铁路附近堆积。S4夏季风沙活动最为强烈；S3春季风沙活动最为强烈，且风向单一，S4和S3的风沙运动方向与铁路夹角小于90°，附近沙源广阔，铁路易受风沙侵蚀，阻碍交通运营。     

Method for evaluating the degrees of land use sustainability of mountainous county and its application in Yunnan Province,China

The evaluation of sustainable land use is the key issue in the field of studying the sustainable land utilization. In general analysis, the sustainable land use is evaluated respectively from its ecological sustainability, economic sustainability and social sustainability in China and other countries in recent years. Although this evaluation is an important work, it seems insufficient and hard to comprehensively reflect the whole degree of land use sustainability. Thus, to make up this deficiency, this paper brings forward the evaluation indexes, which make it possible to quantitatively reflect the whole degree of land use sustainability, namely, the concept of ＂degrees of overall land use sustainability＂ （Dos）, and research and measurement development of the method of and calculation in Dos. Taking the evaluation of the degree of land use sustainability in county regions of Yunnan Province as the actual example for analysis, results are basically as follows：
1） The degree of land use sustainability （Dos） is the ration index to organically and systematically integrate the degree of ecological friendliness （DeF）, the degree of economic viability （Dev） and the degree of social acceptability （Dsa）, able to comprehensively reflect the whole sustainability degree of regional land use
2） Based on the value of Dos, the grading system and standard for the sustainability of land use may be established and totally divided into five grades, namely, the high-degree sustainability, middle-degree sustainability, low-degree sustainability, conditional sustainability and non-sustainability. Meanwhile, the standard for distinguishing sustainability grades has also been confirmed so as to determine the nature of sustainability degrees in different grades. This makes the possibility for the combination of nature determination with ration in research result and provides with the scientific guideline and decision-making gist for better implementation of sustainable land use strategy.
3） The pract     

Distribution of the C37 tetra-unsaturated alkenone in Lake Qinghai, China: A potential lake salinity indicator

The alkenone unsaturation index U^K′₃₇ has been applied to reconstruct past temperature changes in both marine and lacustrine systems. However, few studies have addressed whether the relative abundance of the C_37:4 alkenone to the total C₃₇ production (%C_37:4) can reflect surface salinity changes in lacustrine systems. Here we present long-chain C₃₇ alkenone distribution patterns in surface sediments from Lake Qinghai, China. Surface sediments were sampled over a large range of surface salinity changes (1.7-25 g/l) within Lake Qinghai and its surrounding lakes, while temperature differences at these sampling locations should be relatively small. We have found that %C_37:4 varies from 15% to 49% as surface salinity decreases. We tentatively describe this %C_37:4-salinity link with a general linear regression: %C_37:4 = 53.4 (±7.8) − 1.73 (±0.45) × S (n = 28, r² = 0.62), although step-wise %C_37:4 changes in response to salinity variation may exist. U^K′₃₇ values vary between 0.10 and 0.16 at these sites and the inferred range of lake water temperature changes is ∼2-3 °C, suggesting that U^K′₃₇ largely reflects temperature signal across a large salinity range, consistent with previous findings that U^K′₃₇ can indicate temperature changes over a large diversity of environmental settings. We have also found that U^K′₃₇ values are correlated with salinity changes (r² = 0.4), and thus cannot exclude potential temperature effect on %C_37:4 and salinity effect on U^K′₃₇ in this study. However, even extreme estimates of temperature differences within the lake are still unable to explain the observed %C_37:4 changes. We therefore suggest that %C_37:4 could be used to infer past lake salinity changes at a regional scale.     

Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.     

南海东北部下地壳高速层的成因探讨

通过对南海北部大陆边缘地壳结构分析,指出南海东北部存在下地壳高速层,大致分布在112°E~120°E,19°N~22°N的陆坡和拉张程度大的陆架地区,呈NEE向延伸,在海底地震仪剖面上最大的厚度有8km,向南海海盆方向减薄。通过对比综合分析认为,高速层物质组成是底侵作用形成的熔岩垫,由于伸展作用,南海海底扩张（30Ma）前后底侵作用形成了熔岩垫,并促使南海北部大陆边缘地壳抬升,导致区域性抬升剥蚀。     

库车坳陷东部山前带古近系不同体系域内扇三角洲沉积砂体的对比研究

通过对塔里木盆地库车坳陷南天山山前带克孜勒努尔沟与依奇克里克野外露头沉积相的精细研究,结合山前带大量地震剖面分析与迪那201井、东秋5井等多口钻井测井相和岩心精细描述,将古近系库姆格列木群划分为2个层序。层序2低位域以冲积扇沉积为主,自湖侵体系域始,研究区广泛发育退积与进积型扇三角洲沉积。库姆格列木群层序2湖侵体系域内扇三角洲平原砂体以正韵律沉积为主,砂砾岩占地层厚度的(68.4～87)%;扇三角洲前缘砂体正、反韵律均有分布,砂砾岩占地层的百分比有所降低,为(55.2～77)%。高位体系域内主要发育以反韵律砂体为主的扇三角洲前缘沉积。古近系苏维依组只发育一个层序,其低位体系域的砂体为扇三角洲平原与前缘的分流河道砂体,湖侵体系域内扇三角洲前缘砂体正、反韵律均发育,高位体系域内主要发育扇三角洲前缘沉积,以反韵律砂体为主,正韵律砂体相对较少。对比苏维依组不同体系域内砂体储集性,湖侵域内砂体优于高位域内砂体。扇三角洲沉积体中有利储集砂体首选为湖侵体系域内的扇三角洲前缘水下分流河道和河口坝砂体,次之为低位域扇三角洲前缘(平原)分流河道砂体,最后是高位域内的河口坝及席状砂沉积砂体。特别要指出:低位体系域或者湖侵体系域底部发育的扇三角洲前缘(平原)分流河道砂体(底砂砾岩)被快速湖侵的较厚的暗色泥岩所覆盖,可形成较好储集场所。